The general inflation rate in Spain rose by six tenths to 4.9% in September, driven by higher energy prices. Core inflation also increased, climbing two tenths to 3.1%. The Confederation of Employers and Industries of Spain (CEOE) now projects an average annual inflation rate of 3.6% for 2026, taking into account government measures and potential price increases above this rate amid ongoing conflict.
As of September, the accumulated average inflation rate stands at 3.4%. Most measures implemented to mitigate the effects of the Middle East conflict, which had helped contain energy price increases in recent months, were largely withdrawn in September. Only a gradual reduction in the Hydrocarbons Tax remains in place. If all measures had been lifted this month, general inflation would have reached 5.4%. Conversely, if they had been maintained, the inflation rate would have been significantly lower.
On 29 September, the Council of Ministers approved another royal decree law, introducing a third package of measures as part of the Comprehensive Response Plan to the Crisis in the Middle East, extending and adapting these measures until 31 December 2026. The situation in the Middle East remains complex, with ongoing conflicts and no diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran, while maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly blocked, keeping oil prices above $100 per barrel.
In the Eurozone, the harmonised inflation rate for September reached 3.8%, an increase of six tenths from the previous month. In Spain, this indicator rose by four tenths to 5.0%, resulting in a slight reduction of the differential to 1.2 percentage points. In the first half of the year, employee remuneration increased by 3.9%, while labour costs rose by 4.5%. The average inflation rate for the first half of the year was 3%, which is below the wage increase, indicating that salaries have gained purchasing power in Spain during this period.
Energy prices surged significantly in September, rising by 21.7%, compared to 16.9% in August, marking the highest rate this year. However, this rate would have reached 27.1% without the reductions applied to the Hydrocarbons Tax. Unprocessed food prices continued their upward trend, increasing by 5.8% after a 4.5% rise in August, breaking a previous five-month downward trend. Within core inflation, the greatest pressure comes from services, which maintained a variation rate of 3.9%. Meanwhile, prices for industrial goods excluding energy products accelerated by six tenths to 2.0%. Processed food, beverages, and tobacco continued to moderate, reducing their increase by one tenth to a rate of 1.5%.
