The industrial sector in Alava is entering the final quarter of 2025 with a positive outlook, as indicated by the recent improvements in the Industrial Confidence Index. Although the order book remains at levels similar to those of the previous year, a reduction in stock levels and better production forecasts have led to an increase in confidence.
The Industrial Confidence Index for Alava has improved by nearly 10 points compared to the same period last year, rising from -11.84 points to -2.24 points. Short-term expectations reflect a slight decline in exports, a stable order book, and a moderate increase in sales and employment.
In the third quarter of 2025, production activity showed a decrease compared to the previous quarter. Among surveyed companies, 15% reported an increase in production, 38% maintained stable output, while 47% experienced a reduction. Both domestic and foreign order books saw a moderate decline during this period.
Currently, 64% of companies consider their total order book to be adequate or high, while 36% perceive it as low. The main factors hindering greater production capacity utilisation include domestic demand and challenges in sourcing raw materials.
Industrial sales have declined due to reduced dynamism in both domestic and international markets, resulting in a negative net balance compared to the second quarter of the year. In the third quarter, 14% of Alava's industrial companies reported increased sales, while 37% saw a decrease, and 49% maintained stable sales.
Investment levels also experienced a net decline, with only 21% of companies increasing their investments, 31% reducing them, and 48% maintaining stability.
Future expectations
Looking ahead, Alava's industrial companies anticipate a slight increase in production, sales, and employment, alongside a minor decline in exports and stabilisation of the order book compared to the third quarter of 2025. Specifically, 32% of companies expect production growth, 45% foresee maintenance of current levels, and 13% predict a decrease.
Regarding the order book, 9% of companies expect an increase, 79% anticipate stability, and 12% predict a decrease. In sales, 31% of companies expect an increase, 14% foresee a decline, while 55% expect stability. For exports, 8% anticipate an increase, 14% predict a decrease, and 78% expect stability.
In terms of employment, 21% of companies plan to increase their workforce, 74% will maintain their current number of employees, and 5% expect to reduce their staff.
This analysis is based on the Industrial Situation Survey conducted in October and November 2025, which gathered responses from 75 companies employing a total of 5,347 workers.
